Pick ATS for 'Thursday Night Football'
Commercial Content. 21+. Action Network is the official betting partner of the New York Post, which edits this content.The NFL has finally returned.
The dog days of summer are over.
We no longer have to sweat out baseball bets, suffering endless bad beats because of lousy bullpen arms.
Instead, we’re back to betting on the king of sporting events: NFL football.
Start your NFL betting season 1-0 by backing the Detroit Lions on “Thursday Night Football” against the defending Super Bowl Champions.
Lions vs. Chiefs prediction
The Lions finished seventh in FTN’s Offensive DVOA metric last season.
Jared Goff was incredible, posting top-five marks among starting quarterbacks in QBR (61), adjusted yards per attempt (8.0) and adjusted net yards per attempt (7.5).
The Lions added weapons in the draft, including playmaking running back Jahmyr Gibbs (4.36 40-yard dash) and tight end Sam LaPorta (to replace T.J. Hockenson).
But the most significant move the Lions made wasn’t an acquisition, but a retainment.
Bringing back offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is massive. He interviewed for head coaching positions in Houston and Indianapolis but stayed in Detroit.
Johnson is one of the NFL’s brightest young offensive minds.
He generated a dynamic attack by protecting his sharpshooting quarterback (the Lions were second in adjusted sack rate allowed last year) and using pre-snap motion to scheme open slippery playmakers for yards after the catch.
Johnson was also clever in the run game, calling 116 run plays where at least one offensive lineman pulled, the third-most in the NFL.
The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per rush on those plays, the third-highest mark in the NFL.
Johnson used that rushing attack to dial up a dangerous play-action passing game.
Goff finished sixth among NFL quarterbacks in play-action dropbacks (173), fourth in play-action yards per attempt (9.0) and first in play-action touchdown passes (17).
Jared Goff continued his success using play action in Week 13, completing 11 of 13 play action passes for 116 yards & 2 TD.
Goff on Play Action (2022):
🔹 11 TD passes (1st)
🔹 55.4% success rate (5th)
🔹 93 passing score (2nd)#JAXvsDET | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/1XHwxyVid1
The result was a clever, balanced attack that kept every defense on its toes.
And the offense could get better this year.
The unit should be healthier after losing 70 adjusted games to injury in 2022, the fifth-most in the NFL.
They were constantly shuffling on the offensive line, and returning the Penei Sewell-Taylor Decker-Frank Ragnow trio gives that unit a high floor (and ceiling).
The defense held the Lions back last season, finishing 26th in Defensive DVOA, including 30th in passing yards allowed (4179, 245.8 per game).
So, head coach Dan Campbell said enough is enough and overhauled the secondary.
He and the Lions front office signed cornerbacks C.J. Moseley, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Cam Sutton. while drafting safety Brian Branch.
Branch and Gardner-Johnson are slot-safety-corner hybrids, so the Lions’ secondary should be better and more versatile.
After finishing 29th in Defensive DVOA against deep passes last season, the changes are music to Detroit’s ears.
Detroit’s defense also improved as last season progressed.
Young pass rushers Aidan Hutchison and James Houston blossomed in the second half.
After recording 14 hurries and 21 pressures between Weeks 1 and 9, Hutchison recorded 23 hurries and 32 pressures over the season’s final nine games. Meanwhile, Houston recorded eight sacks and 15 pressures across his seven second-half appearances.
Behind the defensive improvements, the Lions finished the year 8-2, building momentum they should carry into 2023.
It also helped that Goff was lights out during the streak, throwing 17 touchdowns to only one interception down the stretch.
Detroit is also due for positive regression on the defensive side.
The Lions finished 21st in Defense DVOA on early downs but 31st on late downs.
Late-down performance tends to regress toward early-down performance, so I expect the defense to get off the field more in 2023.
If the Lions carry their momentum and the new acquisitions hit, they may have the league’s best offense and a league-average defense.
That’s the exact profile of the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
Yes, the Chiefs are dangerous. But this team is built on incredible quarterback play and average defensive play.
Aaron Schatz’s DVOA projections peg the Chiefs as the 21st-ranked defense in the NFL.
The defense is filled with young talent, which could prove crucial later in the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggle early as they build chemistry.
That’s what happened last year. The Chiefs were 24th in Defense DVOA in Weeks 1 through 7 but 14th after Week 9. The fresh faces will grow into their roles, but that won’t help the Chiefs in Week 1.
It also doesn’t help that the unit is going through turnover.
The Chiefs added Drue Tranquill in the offseason but lost Juan Thornhill, Frank Clark, Carlos Dunlap and Khalen Saunders.
Defensive roster turnover and young talent don’t bode well in an early-season tilt against an elite NFL offense.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense is in a precarious spot here.
Travis Kelce hurt his knee earlier this week and could miss “Thursday Night Football.”
Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce, who suffered a bone bruise to his knee at Tuesday’s practice, is being listed as questionable for Thursday night’s regular-season opener versus the Detroit Lions.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 6, 2023The Chiefs revamped their wide receiver core last season, making Kelce the offense’s focal point.
The gravity he generated meant that Mahomes could shuffle the ball to several other undercovered playmakers – eight players received at least 30 targets last season.
Without Kelce, it’s fair to ask if the Reid-Mahomes offense will move the ball as effectively as usual, especially against Detroit’s immensely more talented secondary.
Despite Kansas City’s usual dominance, the Chiefs have been surprisingly ineffective in covering as favorites.
Since the beginning of 2020, the Chiefs are 14-25 against the spread (ATS) when favored by more than a field goal.
The Chiefs’ defense simply lets underdogs hang around.
Betting on the NFL?
Meanwhile, it’s always wise to back early-season underdogs. Week 1 underdogs of 4.5 or more points are 72-65-2 ATS since 2005.
Moreover, Week 1 road ‘dogs that missed the previous postseason (i.e., the Lions) are 84-57-5 ATS since 2005.
Everything points toward the Lions covering, or winning outright, in Week 1. Even if Detroit’s overhauled secondary doesn’t produce immediate results against a short-handed Chiefs offense, Goff and the Lions’ offense should keep this one close and competitive for 60 minutes.
The Lions are 17-9 ATS as underdogs of more than a field goal underneath coach Campbell, even with their horrendous defense.
Keeping games close is what Johnson and Goff do.
Lions vs. Chiefs pick
Lions +5.5 (-115) at FanDuel | Play to +4.5 (-110)
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